In December, Ukraine reduced its exports of dairy products amidst a "dead season" in export markets during the New Year holidays, a decrease in global prices for exchange commodities due to an unpredicted increase in milk yields in producing regions, and the accumulation of an oversupply of finished products, reports Georghii Kukhaleishvilii, analyst at the Association of Milk Producers.
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), 10.38 thousand tonnes of dairy products worth $25.92 million were exported in December 2025. Physical export volumes decreased by 0.3%, and monetary revenue fell by 6% compared to November. Relative to December 2024, physical export volumes rose by 44%, and monetary revenue increased by 51%. In January–December 2025, Ukraine exported 131.91 thousand tonnes (+12%) of dairy products totaling $401.36 million (+35%).
The main export categories in December were:
- Condensed milk and cream – 36%;
- Cheeses – 22%;
- Butter – 21%.
In December 2025, Ukraine increased physical export volumes of non-condensed milk and cream to 2.58 thousand tonnes (+13%), condensed milk and cream to 3.63 thousand tonnes (+5%), fermented milk products to 575 tonnes (+14%), butter to 836 tonnes (+13%), and ice cream to 336 tonnes (+6%) compared to November. Shipment volumes decreased for whey to 1 thousand tonnes (-22%) and cheeses to 1.24 thousand tonnes (-3%) relative to the previous month. Compared to December 2024, Ukraine saw the highest growth in physical export volumes for condensed milk and cream (+90%), fermented milk products (+50%), butter (+91%), and cheese (+45%).
Compared to November 2025, monetary revenue increased for shipments of non-condensed milk and cream to $2.09 million (+11%), condensed milk and cream to $9.23 million (+5%), fermented milk products to $984 thousand (+32%), ice cream to $1.29 million (+10%), and butter to $5.41 million (+7%), but decreased for whey to $1.11 million (-23%) and cheese to $5.8 million (-5%). Compared to December 2024, the largest increases in monetary revenue were seen in exported condensed milk and cream (+68%), fermented milk products (+78%), and butter (+60%). Monetary revenue for exported whey decreased (-5%).
Georghii Kukiashvili notes that the unpredicted increase in milk yields throughout 2025 led to the accumulation of commodities in European warehouses and a crash in global prices for butter and other dairy products. Activity in the dairy market traditionally slows down at the end of the year during the holiday period, which naturally led to a reduction in export volumes from Ukraine. In early January, dairy exports from Ukraine to Europe effectively came to a halt due to changes in EU requirements regarding the licensing of export volumes within quotas. The procedure, developed in late December, was actually not provided to anyone, which prevented Ukrainian processing enterprises and their partners who import Ukrainian dairy products from submitting applications for export permits in a timely manner.
At the same time, the trend of increasing dairy imports to Ukraine from the EU continues, particularly for cheeses and butter arriving in domestic retail chains from Poland. A certain signal of recovery in global dairy demand was the growth of the price index following the 395th GDT auction, the first such rise since August 2025. The growth occurred in March contracts. It is likely that the oversupply of dairy products will persist in January–February, but a gradual stabilization of commodity prices is possible in March, which aligns with the interests of dairy exporters.
In December 2025, Ukraine imported 6.52 thousand tonnes of dairy products worth $37.28 million. Physical import volumes rose by 17% compared to November 2025 but decreased by 14% relative to December 2024. In January–December 2025, Ukraine imported 64.69 thousand tonnes (+7%) of dairy products totaling $337.93 million (+16%). The largest share of total physical import volumes in December 2025 was attributed to cheeses (65%).
The foreign trade balance in December was negative and amounted to -$11.36 million, likely due to the influx of cheap condensed milk and cheese into Ukraine and the decrease in dairy export volumes.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
Follow us on LinkedIn
Related News: