Unpredicted growth in raw milk production, an oversupply of commodity products in warehouses, and a crash in butter prices are driving down raw milk prices in the EU, reports Georghii Kukiashvili, analyst at the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
According to preliminary data from the European Commission, in December 2025, the average raw milk price in the EU was 49.76 euro cents per kg, which is 1.7% less than in November 2025. Compared to December 2024, milk in the EU has become 9% cheaper. In December, the price for Extra grade milk in Ukraine was 35.80 euro cents per kg.
Compared to the previous year, milk prices dropped most significantly in Belgium (-27%), the Netherlands (-24.1%), Latvia (-23%), Poland and Ireland (-19%), Denmark (-18%), and Germany and Romania (-11%). In Ukraine, the price of raw milk decreased by 20.5% compared to December 2024.
Georghii Kukiashvili notes that the unpredicted surge in raw milk production, primarily in North-Western Europe, influenced the decline in procurement prices across the EU. According to IFCN data, milk production growth rates in Europe had been relatively low since 2022, but a substantial recovery in yields occurred starting in August 2025. Such a sharp increase in yields in European countries has not been observed in the last ten years. The decline in procurement prices continues amidst the accumulation of commodities in warehouses and the collapse of global prices for butter and cheese. Following major peaks in 2024 and early 2025, butter and cheese prices began to crash at the end of the third quarter of 2025, reaching lows nearly comparable to 2021 levels.
However, there are certain signals in the market suggesting a stabilization of demand for dairy products, which should lead to price stabilization. Based on the results of the 395th GDT auction, the price index turned positive for the first time since August 2025. Prices rose for commodities under March contracts. Noel Murphy, Chairman of the Dairy Committee of the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers Association (ICMSA), hopes that the auction results indicate a recovery in global dairy demand, likely to occur in the spring. This could potentially lead to an increase in raw milk prices in Europe as early as the third quarter of 2026.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
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