The price index following the GDT auction results has increased for the first time since August 2025. Market participants suggest that the price growth across nearly all commodities indicates a recovery in demand for dairy products on the global market. A slowdown in the rate of price decline for butter and milk powder was observed at the end of December 2025. It is likely that the price index turned positive against the backdrop of a decrease in the volume of goods sold at the auction and an increase in the number of participants. Prices presumably rose during the preparation period for Ramadan in Muslim countries and the final stage of preparations in the PRC for the Chinese New Year celebrations. The GDT price index grew following China's introduction of new tariffs on imports of cheese, milk, and other dairy products from the EU in response to European tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, reports Georghii Kukhaleishvilii, analyst at the Association of Milk Producers.
On Tuesday, January 6, the 395th GDT auction took place, resulting in a price index of 1072, which is 64 points (+6.3%) higher compared to the previous auction. The average price for dairy products was $3,533 per tonne, which is $192 more than the results of the previous auction. During the auction, 29,282 tonnes of commodities were sold, which is 4,692 tonnes less than the results of the last auction. The minimum supply was recorded at 27,936 tonnes, and the maximum at 34,923 tonnes. 177 dairy market operators participated in the auction, which is 21 companies more than on December 16.
According to the auction results, the price for anhydrous milk fat was $6,011 per tonne, which is 7.4% higher compared to the previous auction. According to USDA data, market activity in December was restrained, and the raw material surplus influenced the price reduction, making them attractive to buyers. According to the GDT forecast, anhydrous milk fat may increase in price by 7.2% in February.
The price for butter at this auction was $5,206 per tonne, which is 3.8% higher than the results of the previous auction. According to analyst Aidan Brennan, the fall in butter prices slowed at the end of December 2025. In Oceania, the seasonal peak of milk production has passed, and demand for butter has strengthened in the region. At the beginning of 2026, export prices for the product from Europe and Oceania were competitive. According to USDA, last week demand for American butter intensified in export markets. According to Dairy Herd, it is likely that in early 2026, US butter exports may be relatively large under contracts concluded earlier at favorable prices. As the price of American butter levels with producers from other regions, exports may slow down. Auction organizers expect that butter may increase in price by 6.1% in February.
The price for whole milk powder was $3,407 per tonne and rose by 7.2% compared to the results of the previous auction. According to USDA, at the end of December, prices for whole milk powder decreased in Europe, Latin America, and Oceania against the backdrop of weak demand in export markets during the New Year holidays. Due to increased milk yields in various regions, the supply of the product outpaced demand. It is likely that the activation of buyers at the auction may be related to preparations for the Chinese New Year and Ramadan, as well as a probable reduction in the volume of goods by organizers at the auction. As reported by USDA, Argentina and Uruguay have been increasing shipments of the product to Algeria over the past month. Market analyst Aidan Brennan emphasizes that there was an easing in the rate of price decline for milk powder at the end of December. According to USDA, at the beginning of January 2026, whole milk powder prices in Oceania rose in the lower price range.
Noel Murphy, Chairman of the Dairy Committee of the "Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers Association," hopes that the auction results indicate a recovery in global demand for dairy products that will continue in the spring, which could influence an increase in raw milk prices in Europe. However, unpleasant news for European dairy processing enterprises was China's introduction of additional anti-subsidy duties on dairy products from Europe. China is a key destination for European dairy exports. The PRC is the fourth-largest market by volume for whole milk powder and butter of European origin. Auction organizers forecast a 7.4% decrease in the product price in February 2026.
The price for skim milk powder was $2,564, which is 5.4% higher than the results of the previous auction. As reported by USDA, unlike other dairy products, demand for skim milk powder was more active globally in December 2025. Most likely, this may be related to preparations for Ramadan and the Chinese New Year. In terms of pricing, in mid-December, the product from Oceania was more competitive in export markets than from Europe. In early January, skim milk powder prices stabilized in Oceania. According to Farmer’s Advance, over the past year, China reduced imports of skim milk powder from Europe by 18.9% amid trade disputes. According to the GDT forecast, skim milk powder may increase in price by 4.9% in February.
The price for Cheddar cheese is $4,665 per tonne (+0.6%), and Mozzarella cheese increased in price to $3,418 per tonne (+0.7%). According to market analyst Aidan Brennan, at the end of 2025, cheese prices showed short and small increases. According to Trigonadairytrade.nl, Cheddar and Gouda prices in the EU stabilized in December. As reported by USDA, following the decline in prices for European cheeses, demand for them grew in export markets. Demand for American cheeses strengthened in export markets in early January 2026. In December, Cheddar prices in New Zealand rose slightly, remaining the highest among other markets. Demand for Cheddar in Oceania was stable.
According to the European News Room, China's introduction of 42.7% tariffs on European cheeses could lead not only to losses for their producers but also to significant damage to the Chinese food industry. According to Coldiretti and Filiera Italia companies, shipments of Italian cheeses to China have tripled over the past five years. Auction organizers expect that Cheddar cheese may decrease in price by 0.6% in February, and Mozzarella cheese may rise in price by 0.2% in March 2026.
Buttermilk powder increased in price to $3,027 per tonne (+5.1%). According to USDA, in December 2025, buttermilk powder production volumes increased, and demand for the product was stable. It is likely that the production and consumption of cookies and bakery products increase in winter. Buttermilk powder is one of the ingredients for baking. Auction organizers forecast a 32.7% increase in the price of buttermilk powder in February 2026.
The next GDT auction will take place on January 20.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
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