In November, Ukrainian companies saw a decrease in revenue for most exported dairy products compared to October. Condensed milk and cream were the exceptions; an increase in their shipments allowed overall export figures to move into positive territory, according to Georghii Kukhaleishvili, analyst at the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), 10.41 thousand tonnes of dairy products worth $27.56 million were exported in November 2025. Export volumes in physical terms increased by 16% compared to October, while monetary revenue grew by 12%. Compared to November 2024, physical export volumes rose by 18%, but monetary revenue decreased by 1%. In January–November 2025, Ukraine exported 121.53 thousand tonnes (+10%) of dairy products totaling $375.43 million (+35%).
The main export categories in November were:
- Condensed milk and cream – 32%;
- Cheeses – 22%;
- Butter – 18%.
In November 2025, Ukraine significantly increased the export volumes of condensed milk and cream to 3.63 thousand tonnes (+82%). Shipments also rose for butter to 743 tonnes (+4%), casein to 356 tonnes (+6%), and non-condensed milk and cream (+3%). Conversely, export volumes decreased for fermented milk products to 506 tonnes (-17%), cheeses to 1.27 thousand tonnes (-10%), ice cream to 316 tonnes (-9%), and whey to 1.29 thousand tonnes (-2%) compared to October 2025.
Compared to November 2024, Ukraine saw the highest growth in exports of condensed milk and cream (+54%), whey (+51%), and fermented milk products (+35%). Shipments also increased for non-condensed milk and cream (+20%), butter (+16%), and ice cream (+6%). At the same time, physical export volumes for cheeses (-11%) and casein (-63%) declined relative to November of the previous year.
Regarding geography, in January–November 2025, the largest shares of non-condensed milk and cream (91%), fermented milk products (84%), butter (30%), and cheese (34%) were shipped to Moldova. Condensed milk and cream (18%), whey (35%), and casein (47%) were primarily sent to Poland, while ice cream (29%) went to Germany.
Georghii Kukhaleishvili suggests that the surge in condensed milk exports in November was likely linked to the baking season. In autumn and winter, households and bakeries increase purchases of ingredients as the consumption of bread, buns, pies, and cookies rises. The season peaks in December during Hanukkah, Christmas, and New Year celebrations. On the other hand, the decline in export revenue for cheeses, butter, and fermented milk products indicates a challenging environment for traders due to global surpluses of raw milk and finished goods.
Milk production in most major regions in 2024–2025 grew faster than consumption, creating surpluses of dairy fat and protein. Key factors encouraging farmers to increase yields included cheaper feed, lower energy costs, improved weather, and a lack of regulatory pressure in the US and parts of Latin America. Amidst this global instability, many processors reoriented toward long-shelf-life products like hard cheeses, butter, and powders.
However, consumer demand in the EU and US has been slow to recover following the inflationary pressure of 2022–2023. In the EU, butter and cheese consumption dropped in the Horeca sector, food processing, and households. In the US, supermarket cheese sales declined due to lower purchasing power. China and Southeast Asia also reduced imports due to large domestic stocks and weak economic activity. Consequently, global inventories are expected to normalize only by the 3rd–4th quarter of 2026 as production volumes eventually decline.
In November 2025, Ukraine imported 5.55 thousand tonnes of dairy products worth $30.91 million. Physical import volumes decreased by 6% compared to both October 2025 and November 2024. In January–November 2025, total imports reached 58.16 thousand tonnes (+10%) worth $300.65 million (+20%). Cheeses accounted for the largest share of imports (64%), with Poland being the primary supplier (64% share).
The foreign trade balance in November was negative at -$3.35 million, likely due to the influx of cheap condensed milk, cheeses, and fermented milk products from Europe into Ukraine.
Press service of the Association of Milk Producers
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