In December, Ukraine reduced the volume of dairy product exports due to a lull in the global dairy market during the New Year holiday period. However, according to the results of 2024, dairy exports from Ukraine increased against the backdrop of a shortage of milk fats and rising prices for butter and other commodities worldwide, reports Georgiy Kukhaleyshvili, an analyst at the Association of Milk Producers of Ukraine.
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in December 2024, 7.23 thousand tons of dairy products were exported, amounting to $17.18 million. Compared to November of the current year, the physical volume of exports decreased by 22%, and compared to December 2023, they decreased by 8%. Revenue decreased by 61% compared to November 2024 but increased by 3% compared to December 2023. In 2024, Ukraine exported 117.73 thousand tons of dairy products worth $295.03 million. Compared to 2023, the physical volume of exports increased by 8%, and revenue increased by 14%.
The main export categories in monetary terms in December were the following products:
- Condensed milk and cream – 32%
- Cheese – 22%
- Butter – 20%
- Non-condensed milk and cream – 9%
Compared to November of the current year, Ukraine increased revenue from exported non-condensed milk and cream (+7%), buttermilk (+5%), whey (+30%), and ice cream (+17%). However, in the last month, export revenue for condensed milk and cream (-13%), butter (-47%), and cheese (-74%) decreased.
Compared to December 2023, revenue from exported condensed milk and cream (+24%), buttermilk (+39%), whey (+14%), butter (+17%), cheese (+8%), and ice cream (+21%) increased. Only revenue from non-condensed milk and cream (-8%) decreased.
In 2024, Ukraine increased export revenue for all product categories, including non-condensed milk and cream (+6%), condensed milk and cream (+8%), buttermilk (+29%), whey (+19%), butter (+15%), cheese (+26%), ice cream (+21%), and casein (+3%).
Georgiy Kukhaleyshvili notes that in December, there was a reduction in the volume of dairy product exports from Ukraine due to the traditional slowdown in purchasing activity in the global dairy market during the New Year holiday period. The decline in butter prices in the USA, New Zealand, and several European countries restrained the export activity of Ukrainian companies at the end of the fourth quarter and held back the growth of raw milk prices within the country. Poland's decision to release 1,000 tons of butter from its strategic reserves to stabilize product prices also influenced the decline in butter prices in Europe.
Nevertheless, Ukraine increased the volume of dairy product exports in 2024. Last year, there was a shortage of milk fats globally, and raw milk production volumes decreased in various regions. The milk fat market was unbalanced, with demand exceeding supply. In particular, in 2024, butter prices were the main driver of commodity price growth. The rise in global dairy product prices and the devaluation of the hryvnia stimulated the activity of Ukrainian exporters. Despite the increase in raw milk prices in Ukraine, they still lagged behind European prices, and domestic dairy products, especially butter, were attractive in foreign markets.
However, last year Ukraine also increased the volume of dairy product imports, which may be related to the shortage of raw milk in the domestic market and a significant increase in prices for domestically produced goods in the second half of the year. In 2024, the total physical volume of dairy product imports to Ukraine amounted to 60.26 thousand tons, which is 1% more compared to 2023. In monetary terms, imports amounted to $290.30 million, which is 9% more compared to 2023. Since the beginning of the year, butter imports to Ukraine in monetary terms increased by 10%, condensed milk and cream by 11%, cheese by 12%, and ice cream by 22%. Other categories saw a decrease.
In December, Ukraine imported 7.6 thousand tons of dairy products worth $38.72 million. In physical volumes, imports increased by 23% compared to November and grew by 30% compared to last year. Expenditure on imported products increased by 25% compared to November of the current year and December 2023.
In December, the trade balance was negative, amounting to -$21.53 thousand. Overall, in 2024, Ukraine exported more dairy products than it imported, resulting in a positive balance of $4.73 million.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
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