The adoption of the State Program for Livestock Development is an important signal for the dairy industry. However, without a decisive modernization of dairy processing, production growth could become a threat rather than an opportunity.
The Cabinet of Ministers' adoption of the State Targeted Program for Livestock Development until 2033 on January 21, 2026, is undoubtedly a step in the right direction. AMP took an active part in developing the Concept — so we well understand both the logic of the document and its limitations, and we truly welcome the attempt to think long-term and strategically.
At the same time, we cannot share the optimism regarding the Program's priorities. Because today, the key vulnerability of the dairy sector lies not in the production of raw milk, but in the ability to competitively process it and sell the finished products.
Over the last three years, dairy farms have achieved the nearly impossible: a 20% increase in cow productivity, 60% of milk produced as "extra" grade, over 95% of industrial milk in total supplies, and investments in automation, energy independence, and genetics — even during the war. Yet, a mere +2% increase in livestock and a +6% rise in milk supplies in 2025 have already led to a market collapse. This happened because a significant part of the processing sector is technologically unprepared to process this milk efficiently and profitably, remaining extremely sensitive to fluctuations in the external market.
! Under these conditions, calls to "further increase livestock" and "boost supplies" are a dangerous illusion. When, since January 2025, the price of raw milk does not cover production costs, and processing plants insist that the only way forward is through prices 30% lower than the EU average — this is a direct path to losing all the achievements of industrial cattle breeding in a matter of months.
We are convinced: reform must begin with the decisive modernization of dairy processing, protection of the domestic market from "grey" and non-competitive imports, real stimulation of exports, and the consumption of Ukrainian products—specifically through transparent public procurement conditions favoring exclusively domestic dairy products. Without this, any plans or calls to increase milk production are not about development, but about industry suicide.
Systemic change is not just about the numbers in the Program. It is about the correct sequence of decisions.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
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