In October, Ukraine reduced its butter export volumes amidst low prices in the EU and growing competition in the markets of post-Soviet countries, according to Georghii Kukhaleishvili, analyst at the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), in October 2025, 8.96 thousand tonnes of dairy products were exported, totaling $24.67 million. Despite the fact that the physical export volumes increased by 4% compared to September, the monetary revenue decreased by 2% compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2024, physical export volumes increased by 5%, and monetary revenue increased by 12%. From January to October 2025, Ukraine exported 111.11 thousand tonnes (+9%) of dairy products, totaling $347.87 million (+39%).
The main export categories in October were the following goods:
- Butter – 21%
- Cheese – 27%
- Milk and cream, condensed – 20%
- Casein – 9%
In October 2025, Ukraine reduced the physical export volumes of butter to 714 tonnes (-22%) and ice cream to 348 tonnes (-49.6%) compared to September 2025. The largest increases in supplies to foreign markets were observed for whey to 1.31 thousand tonnes (+25%) and cheese to 1.41 thousand tonnes (+16%) compared to the previous month. Compared to October 2024, supplies of fermented dairy products (+37%) and whey (+62%) to foreign markets increased, but supplies of butter (-11%), ice cream (-16%), milk and cream uncondensed (-13%), and milk and cream condensed (-5%) decreased.
Compared to September 2025, the monetary revenue increased the most for shipped milk and cream uncondensed to $1.88 million (+10%), whey to $1.44 million (+27%), cheese to $6.62 million (+21%), and casein to $2.12 million (+13%), but decreased for supplied butter (-24%) and ice cream (-46%). Compared to October 2024, the largest increase in monetary revenue was for exported fermented dairy products (+62%) and whey (+109%). Monetary revenue decreased for exported butter (-15%), ice cream (-7%), and milk and cream condensed (-5%).
Regarding the geography of exports from January to October 2025, the largest volumes of milk and cream uncondensed (92%), fermented dairy products (84%), butter (29%), and cheese (34%) were shipped to Moldova; condensed milk and cream (19.5%), whey (34%), and casein (49%) to Poland; and ice cream (29%) to Germany.
Georghii Kukhaleishvili notes that despite expectations, dairy product exports to the EU under the new quotas have not resumed after October 29th, as European traders are offering Ukrainian companies lower prices for finished products than last year amid a decline in global commodity prices. The drop in butter prices continues in Germany, the Netherlands, and Oceania countries. The volume of butter exports to Kazakhstan, Moldova, and the South Caucasus decreased due to the increased supply of the product from competitors.
Prospects for Ukrainian companies exist in other export markets. According to the IFCN forecast, by 2035, approximately 20 million tonnes of unmet milk demand may emerge globally due to increased consumption of dairy products in developing countries and a slowdown in global milk yields. The countries facing the greatest milk shortage will be those in Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, due to insufficient self-sufficiency. The rate of milk production growth in Africa is not keeping up with the rate of dairy consumption growth. Over the next decade, Africa will remain a market requiring imported supplies.
This opens up additional opportunities for Ukrainian milk production and processing. However, in Southeast Asia, Ukraine's competitors include leading dairy exporters such as New Zealand and Australia, as well as China, which is also interested in this market. Ukraine's competitors in export markets, including Europe, are Argentina and Uruguay, which are increasing raw milk production. After the signing of the EU agreement with the MERCOSUR integration bloc, approximately 70 thousand tonnes of dairy products from South American countries will begin entering the European market annually.
In October 2025, Ukraine imported 5.89 thousand tonnes of dairy products totaling $31.87 million. Compared to September 2025, physical import volumes decreased by 7%, and compared to October 2024, they increased by 20%. From January to October 2025, Ukraine imported 52.61 thousand tonnes (+12%) of dairy products totaling $269.73 million (+21%). The largest share of total physical import volumes in September 2025 was accounted for by cheese (64%). The largest supplier of cheese to Ukraine from January to October was Poland with a share of 44%. Most other dairy products were imported from Poland, with the exception of butter and casein, where the leading positions are held by Germany with shares of 24.5% and 73%, respectively.
The foreign trade balance in September was negative at -$7.2 million.
Press service of the Association of Milk Producers
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