The industrial sector has demonstrated one of the best growths in milk production globally since the beginning of 2025 and increased milk yields in September. However, the demand for raw milk restrains the drop in world prices for stock exchange goods and the reduction in the volume of exports of dairy products, according to Georghii Kukhaleishvili, analyst at the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), in September 2025, farms of all categories produced 613 thousand tonnes of raw milk, which is 27 thousand tonnes less (-4%) than August 2025 and 2 thousand tonnes less (-0.3%) than September 2024. From January to September 2025, milk volumes in Ukraine amounted to 5.31 million tonnes, which is 241 thousand tonnes less (-4%) than the same period last year. In September 2025, the share of industrial farms in raw milk production was 45%, and household farms was 55%.
Industrial farms produced 279 thousand tonnes of raw milk in September 2025, which is 11 thousand tonnes more (+4%) compared to August 2025, and 49 thousand tonnes more (+21%) compared to September 2024. From January to September 2025, dairy farms (MTFs) produced 2.38 million tonnes of raw milk, which is 165 thousand tonnes more (+7%) than the same period last year.
In household farms, milk volumes in September 2025 amounted to 334 thousand tonnes of milk, which is 38 thousand tonnes less (-10%) compared to August 2025 and 51 thousand tonnes less (-13%) compared to September 2024. From January to September 2025, the household sector produced 2.92 million tonnes of raw milk, which is 406 thousand tonnes less (-12%) than the same period last year.
Georghii Kukhaleishvili notes that raw milk production volumes in Ukraine are shrinking primarily due to the household sector, which is ceasing to play a significant role in the dairy industry. It is likely that if personal farms do not consolidate by 2030, their milk will cease to be supplied for processing and will be used for personal consumption.
However, the industrial sector is compensating for the shrinking share of household farms and demonstrating stability in raw milk production despite blackouts and missile and bomb attacks. The growth rate of raw milk production in the industrial sector of Ukraine since the beginning of 2025 has been one of the best in Europe and the world. For comparison, the year-to-date yield growth rates were +1.7% in the US, +1.4% in New Zealand, +4.9% in Uruguay, and raw milk production volumes in the EU are stable (-0.1%). In 2025, it is expected that more than 90% of the milk processed in Ukraine will come from dairy farms (MTFs). For comparison, at the beginning of 2009, the ratio of milk supplied for processing from the household and industrial sectors was nearly 50/50.
The trend towards MTF consolidation continues in Ukraine. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, about 100 MTFs continue to invest in expanding and modernizing their infrastructure. They are implementing solutions in digitalization, robotization, and production automation, and are also investing in biogas plants and solar energy to have alternative sources of electricity during blackouts.
As a result of these measures, there is a record increase in cow productivity in Ukraine's industrial sector. While the average increase in cow productivity in the EU over the last three years ranged from 1.5 to 2.5%, Ukrainian MTFs have increased their cow productivity by 20%. In 2025, cow productivity on MTFs is expected to be at least 8.3 thousand kg of milk per cow per year. Quality indicators for finished products have also risen. While only 9.2% of milk produced in Ukraine was Extra Grade in 2014, this figure has risen to 62% over the last ten years.
The trend of MTF consolidation continues in Ukraine, despite the destruction of large agricultural enterprises in the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Donetsk regions. The dairy industry lost 472 farms between 2022 and 2025. Therefore, only large modern MTFs will be able to remain stable and efficient. Farms with a herd size of over 1,000 cows maintained production positions despite losses after the start of the war.
The geography of milk production in Ukraine has shifted somewhat due to hostilities. In particular, the dairy sector in the border regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv oblasts (which were among the top 5 milk producers) suffered significant losses. From January to September 2025, milk volumes decreased on MTFs in the Zaporizhzhia region (-9%), Dnipropetrovsk region (-7%), and Sumy region (-4%).
Milk production is shifting from the ten most war-affected eastern and southern regions (which produced 42% of raw materials) to the Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, and Ternopil regions, which have demonstrated the highest growth in cow numbers over the last two years. Enterprises are relocating there from frontline regions. The cumulative milk volumes on MTFs in the Vinnytsia region surpassed the 200 thousand tonnes mark based on the results of the first nine months of 2025. The Ternopil region has tripled MTF milk production over the last six years.
Restraining factors that may cause agricultural enterprises to hold back from further increasing raw milk production are the decline in world commodity prices, weak domestic demand, reduced supplies to foreign markets, and the resulting drop in milk procurement prices. Unfortunately, given the current level of commodity prices, even the resumption of supplies to the EU under new quotas from October 29 will not change the situation in the raw milk price market.
The leaders in milk volume remain the Chernihiv, Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Poltava regions, which house over 50% of the country's total herd and produce over 53% of the milk. MTFs in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv regions, which were liberated from Russian occupiers, have restored production indicators and maintain product quality despite constant shelling and the loss of over 50% of their cow population. From January to September 2025, the largest increases in raw milk production by agricultural enterprises were recorded in the Zakarpattia region (+25%), Khmelnytskyi region (+22%), Lviv region (+22%), Kharkiv region (+16%), and Volyn region (+14%) compared to the same period last year.
From January to September 2025, approximately 55% of raw milk was produced by agricultural enterprises in the following regions:
- Poltava region – 357.9 thousand tonnes
- Cherkasy region – 290.6 thousand tonnes
- Khmelnytskyi region – 234.7 thousand tonnes
- Vinnytsia region – 212.7 thousand tonnes
- Chernihiv region – 211.4 thousand tonnes
Regarding beef production, according to preliminary estimates from the SSSU, the volume of cattle slaughter at agricultural enterprises in September 2025 was 9.8 thousand tonnes, which is 600 tonnes more (+6%) than August 2025 but 1.6 thousand tonnes less (-14%) than September 2024. From January to September 2025, the volume of cattle slaughter at agricultural enterprises was 93.92 thousand tonnes.
The largest volumes of cattle for slaughter (58%) at agricultural enterprises were sold in the following regions:
- Kyiv region – 14.15 thousand tonnes
- Poltava region – 12.27 thousand tonnes
- Cherkasy region – 10.46 thousand tonnes
- Vinnytsia region – 8.58 thousand tonnes
- Chernihiv region – 8.29 thousand tonnes.
Press service of the Association of Milk Producers
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