In annual terms, dairy farms increased their cow numbers despite the severe consequences of the war and rising production costs. However, deteriorating market conditions and increasing production expenses are creating prerequisites for a downward adjustment of the herd in 2026, reports Georghii Kuhiashvili, analyst at the Association of Milk Producers.
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service, as of January 1, 2026, there are 1 million 804.1 thousand head of cattle in Ukraine's household and industrial sectors, including 1 million 22.3 thousand cows. Compared to December 1, 2025, the cattle population in Ukraine decreased by 138.9 thousand head (-7%), and the number of cows decreased by 53.7 thousand head (-5%). Compared to January 1, 2025, the cattle population decreased by 232 thousand head (-11%), including cows by 158 thousand head (-13%).
Approximately 53% of the animals are kept in industrial enterprises, and 47% in household farms.
In the industrial sector, there are 947.7 thousand head of cattle, which is 300 head less (-0.03%) relative to December 1, 2025. The cow inventory stands at 386.3 thousand head and grew by 1.1 thousand head (+0.3%) over the last month. Over the past year, the cattle population at enterprises increased by 22.6 thousand head (+2%), and the number of cows increased by 4.5 thousand head (+1%).
In the household sector, there are 856.4 thousand head of cattle, which is 139 thousand head less (-14%) compared to December 1, 2025. The number of cows in household farms as of January 1, 2026, was 636 thousand head, which is 55 thousand head less (-8%) than a month ago. Over the past year, the number of cattle in household farms decreased by 254 thousand head (-23%), and the number of cows decreased by 163 thousand head (-20%).
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service, growth in the number of cows was recorded at agricultural enterprises in 10 regions, namely: Rivne region (+18%), Ternopil region (+10%), Lviv region (+8%), Ivano-Frankivsk region (+7%), Chernihiv region (+7%), Khmelnytskyi region (+5%), Volyn region (+4%), Cherkasy region (+3%), Vinnytsia region (+2%), and Poltava region (+0.4%) relative to January 1 of last year.
Georghii Kuhiashvili notes that the cow inventory is declining primarily in the household sector, but in December 2025, agricultural enterprises also slightly reduced their cattle population. The cow inventory grew by only 300 head. Farmers are likely refraining from increasing herds due to rising production costs and unfavorable weather conditions. The decline in the cattle population is a long-standing problem for Ukraine due to the lack of an effective state program to support dairy farming. The war has only worsened the situation. A sharp reduction in inventory continues in the East and South. Agricultural enterprises are relocating cows from Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions to safer regions of Western Ukraine amid intensifying Russian missile and bomb strikes on border and frontline settlements. Cow numbers also decreased in Zakarpattia and Chernivtsi regions, which is likely related to the disposal of unproductive animals.
Most farms in Ukraine were built in the 70s and 80s and no longer meet modern animal welfare requirements. A lack of facilities suitable for housing cows creates the conditions for further herd reduction. Many farmers are not investing in increasing their cow inventory during the war and are experiencing a deficit of working capital. According to the study "Ukraine: Impact of War on the Profitability of Agricultural Production" conducted by UCAB and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy with the support of GFDRR, farmers' production costs are rising faster than the prices for finished products due to the increasing cost of feed, electricity, the devaluation of the hryvnia, and the decline in consumer purchasing power.
However, dairy farms in relatively safe regions of Ukraine are modernizing existing capacities and building new ones. They are also increasing their high-productivity cow inventory. According to AMP estimates, at least 40 farms are currently implementing such measures. Nevertheless, in October, the growth rate of the cow inventory in the industrial sector also slowed down, which may be related to the ongoing "bearish trend" in the dairy market and falling prices for commodities and raw milk. Over the last month, the cow inventory grew on dairy farms in 10 regions, mostly in the relatively safe areas of Central and Western Ukraine.
It is likely that the sharp drop in raw milk prices due to an unpredicted increase in global milk and dairy production in the second half of 2025, as well as rising production costs at dairy farms, may lead to a reduction in cow inventory or the exit of certain farms with fewer than 400 head from the industry during 2026. However, those dairy farms that can maintain their herd despite the difficult conditions will benefit in the foreseeable future. In 2028-2030, procurement price levels are likely to be higher than in 2020-2024 due to the exit of certain farms in the EU, reduced milk yields, and the emergence of a shortage of high-quality raw materials. Ukraine has a chance to partially compensate for this shortage and increase dairy exports to the European market.
In a regional breakdown, about 52% of the total cattle population is held in farms of all categories in the following regions:
- Khmelnytskyi region – 174.20 thousand head;
- Poltava region – 164.10 thousand head;
- Vinnytsia region – 132.00 thousand head;
- Cherkasy region – 124.20 thousand head;
- Chernihiv region – 122.30 thousand head;
- Odesa region – 114.30 thousand head;
- Kyiv region – 103.10 thousand head.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
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