Raw milk prices in Ukraine decreased at the beginning of January due to reduced demand from dairy processing enterprises during the New Year holidays. A further increase in purchase prices is likely during 2025 due to rising production costs, reports Georgii Kukhaleyshvili, an analyst at the Association of Milk Producers.
As of January 6, the average purchase price of extra grade milk was 19.10 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 60 kopecks lower than a month ago. The price range for this grade on farms varies from 18.50 to 19.50 UAH/kg excluding VAT. The lower limit of the price range has not changed, but the upper limit has decreased by 1 UAH over the past month.
High grade milk averages 18.35 UAH/kg excluding VAT (-35 kopecks). Prices for high grade milk range from 17.80 to 19.00 UAH/kg excluding VAT. Compared to the results of monitoring in the first half of December, the lower limit of the price range has not changed, but the upper limit has decreased by 50 kopecks.
The average price of first grade milk was 17.65 UAH/kg excluding VAT and has not changed compared to the price in the first half of December. The minimum price on farms was 16.50 UAH/kg and has not changed over the past month. The maximum price was 18.50 UAH/kg and remained at the same level as at the beginning of December.
Accordingly, the weighted average price of the three grades was 18.37 UAH/kg excluding VAT, which is 32 kopecks lower than a month ago.
Georgii Kukhaleyshvili notes that the decrease in raw milk prices in Ukraine at the beginning of the year was influenced by the decline in butter prices and a reduction in purchasing activity in the market, traditionally observed during the New Year holidays. Ukrainian companies reduced the volume of butter exports in December due to lower prices on the external markets. For example, if at the end of September 2024 the price of butter in Western Europe reached $9625 per ton, then as of January 3, 2025, it had dropped to $7350 per ton. There were surplus raw milk stocks on the domestic market, and the maximum prices for extra and high grade milk went down due to reduced demand from dairy processing enterprises.
In Ukraine, there is also a decline in butter prices along with a halt in the growth of prices for fermented milk products due to the limited purchasing power of the population and reduced demand for dairy products on the domestic market. Due to the high prices of domestic dairy products, the volume of imports of ready-made dairy products, including cheese, increased in December.
A significant decrease in purchase prices in Ukraine is unlikely due to the increase in production costs caused by the rising costs of feed production and the need to comply with EU environmental requirements. It is likely that in 2025, the global dairy market will move into a new price range – from $40 to $50 per 100 kg of raw milk. In 2024, the average price of raw milk in Ukraine was $42.45 per 100 kg, which is 20% higher compared to 2023. The price of raw milk in Ukraine increased throughout 2024, unlike in the EU, the USA, and New Zealand. In 2025, an increase in the average milk price in Ukraine to $45-46 per 100 kg of raw milk is expected. In the absence of force majeure circumstances, a certain decline in purchase prices is likely at the end of April – early May of this year due to the seasonal increase in milk production on household farms.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
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