The global beef market is undergoing a period of instability due to historically low supply and steady demand, which supports record-high prices. In 2026–2027, a further contraction of the global cattle supply is expected, alongside intensified competition among beef exporters and a redistribution of trade flows due to demand constraints in China and geopolitical risks.
According to preliminary data from the State Customs Service, in February 2026, Ukraine exported about 1.77 thousand tons of live cattle (live weight), which is 85% more compared to January 2026 and 36% more compared to February 2025. Monetary revenue for the exported animals amounted to 12.02 million USD, up 39% from January 2026 and 57% from February 2025. In January–February 2026, Ukraine exported a total of 2.73 thousand tons (+0.3%) of cattle for 6.35 million USD (+14%).
In February 2026, Ukrainian exporters supplied 230.8 tons of fresh or chilled beef to foreign markets, which is 21% less than in January 2026. Export revenue for these goods amounted to 1.69 million USD, a 24% decrease compared to January 2026. Total exports for January–February 2026 reached 523.8 tons of fresh beef worth 3.91 million USD.
Physical volumes of frozen beef exports from Ukraine in February 2026 amounted to 1.27 thousand tons, which is 32% more compared to January 2026 but 4% less than in February 2025. Monetary revenue for these goods was nearly 5.8 million USD, up 26% from January 2026 and 20% from February 2025. In January–February 2026, Ukraine exported 2.24 thousand tons (-18%) of frozen beef for a total of 10.42 million USD (+3%).
The global beef market is entering a period of instability characterized by the combination of historically low supply and steady demand. Global demand for beef is expected to rise due to population growth and increased protein consumption in middle-income countries. These factors are shaping high prices today and creating uncertainty regarding price dynamics in 2026–2027. According to Beef Central, a contraction in global beef supply is expected in 2026–2027 following high volumes of cattle slaughter in producer regions in previous years.
In particular, the U.S. market is experiencing record-low cattle supply and steady consumer demand. According to Gary Joiner of the Texas Farm Bureau, in January 2026, the average price of a pound of ground beef in the U.S. reached 6.74 USD. This is the highest price level ever paid by American consumers. The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in 75 years. Droughts, high grain prices, inflation, and rising interest rates on loans have made cattle ranching a costly business. Consequently, many U.S. farmers have reduced their herds or left the industry entirely. The current year, 2026, may become a period when consumers begin to experience "price fatigue."
In 2025, Brazil overtook the U.S. to become the world's largest beef producer. Brazil actively increased production by expanding feedlots, allowing for cattle to be slaughtered at a younger age while maintaining competitive prices. However, due to a 1.1 million-ton tariff quota introduced by China, Brazilian exports to the Chinese market may decrease, potentially reorienting supplies to the U.S., Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East following joint U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran could lead to disruptions in supplies to Gulf countries due to risks associated with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
A potential threat to Australian producers is Brazil's expansion into the Japanese or South Korean markets. In Australia, livestock prices are slightly above the 10-year average. Due to drought, slaughter volumes—especially of cows—are expected to rise, increasing pressure on prices. The U.S. will remain an important market for Australian beef, but competition from Brazil and Argentina will grow. China is expected to reduce imports due to the introduction of a 55% out-of-quota protective tariff. Once the quota is exhausted, Chinese importers may increase purchases from New Zealand, Argentina, and Uruguay, which have larger quotas.
It is likely that in 2026–2027, Argentina and Uruguay will increase exports due to higher demand from China. Japan and South Korea may increase imports if global export prices drop as a result of restricted access for Brazilian and Australian suppliers to the Chinese market. Central American countries, particularly Guatemala and Mexico, are increasingly purchasing Choice and higher-grade beef from the U.S.—a trend not seen 5–10 years ago.
In February 2026, Ukraine did not import any cattle. The import volume of chilled beef increased to 13.7 tons (+128%), while frozen beef imports decreased to 69.5 tons (-14%) compared to the previous month. Compared to February 2025, physical volumes of chilled beef imports rose by 3%, while frozen beef imports fell by 21%.
The foreign trade balance in February 2026 was positive, amounting to 11.21 million USD.
Press service of the Association of Milk Producers
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