At the beginning of May, Ukraine is observing a certain stabilization of raw milk prices against the backdrop of a recovery in demand for dairy products in export markets. At the same time, considering the reduction in demand for dairy products in the domestic market, the prospect of increasing purchase prices depends on how much exports will grow in the short term, according to Georghii Kukhaleishvili, an analyst at the Association of Milk Producers of Ukraine.
As of May 5, the average purchase price of extra grade milk was UAH 16.12/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 0.03 less than a month ago. The price range for this grade on farms varies from UAH 15.50 to UAH 16.50/kg excluding VAT and has not changed over the last month.
Higher grade milk costs an average of UAH 15.93/kg excluding VAT (-UAH 0.02). Prices for higher grade milk fluctuate from UAH 15.30 to UAH 16.20/kg excluding VAT. The lower and upper limits remained unchanged.
The average price of first grade milk was UAH 15.60/kg excluding VAT and did not change compared to the first half of last month. The minimum price on farms was UAH 15.00/kg. The maximum price was UAH 15.80/kg. The price range did not change.
Accordingly, the average weighted price of the three grades was UAH 15.97/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 0.03 less compared to the previous period.
Georghii Kukhaleishvili notes that at the beginning of May, there was no shortage of raw milk in the domestic market of Ukraine. The supply of milk remained high, while the demand for finished products was low. Changes in the balance occurred in the market for finished dairy products amid an increase in export volumes. Stocks of exchange-traded goods in warehouses decreased, and this influenced a certain stabilization of raw milk prices, which hardly changed compared to the monitoring results conducted at the beginning of April 2025. The profitability of producing dairy products from higher grade milk has improved.
The growth of purchase prices may be restrained by the European Commission's cancellation in June of autonomous trade measures (ATMs) for milk and dairy products from Ukraine, which since 2022 have allowed domestic processing enterprises to supply their products to Europe without quotas and duties. The Association of Milk Producers of Ukraine and the Union of Dairy Enterprises of Ukraine have appealed to the European Commission with an urgent call to extend the ATMs for milk and dairy products after June 5, 2025. The continuation of duty-free trade with the EU is important to support the dairy industry of Ukraine in the face of the ongoing difficult situation in the country and to facilitate its integration into the European economic space.
Otherwise, unsold products will accumulate in warehouses and restrain the growth of raw milk prices in Ukraine. If the ATMs are extended, a likely revision of raw milk prices upwards in the second half of June, as there are favorable conditions for Ukrainian suppliers of exchange-traded goods in export markets. Over the past year, global prices for whole milk powder (+30.6%), skimmed milk powder (+10.9%), butter (+20.2%), and Cheddar cheese (+29.6%) have increased.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
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