Ukraine reduced its supplies of beef and cattle amid a market lull after the New Year holidays, rising logistics costs due to the war, and a temporary decline in consumer demand against the background of high prices for red meat, reports Georghii Kuhiashvili, an analyst at the Association of Milk Producers.
According to preliminary data from the State Customs Service, in January 2026, Ukraine exported about 958 tons of live cattle, which is 36% less compared to December 2025 and 33% less compared to January 2025. Monetary revenue for the exported animals amounted to 1.82 million USD, which is 46% less compared to December 2025 and 33% less compared to January 2025.
In January 2026, Ukrainian exporters supplied 292 tons of fresh or chilled beef to foreign markets, which is 32% less compared to December 2025, but significantly more compared to January 2025 (when 21 tons of meat were exported). Export revenue for the supplied goods amounted to 2.22 million USD, which is 35% more compared to December 2025 and much more compared to January 2025 (when export revenue was 102 thousand USD).
Physical volumes of frozen beef exports from Ukraine in January 2026 amounted to 966 tons, which is 34% less compared to December 2025 and 31% less compared to January 2025. Monetary revenue for the supplied goods amounted to almost 4.62 million USD, which is 33% less compared to December 2025 and 13% less compared to January 2025.
Georghii Kuhiashvili notes that the reduction in beef and cattle exports in January is likely related to the intensification of shelling of port infrastructure by the Russian occupiers, which influenced the increase in logistics costs. Farmers are forced to spend money on risk insurance, additional security measures, and changing routes. In addition, according to FAO data, a decrease in demand was observed in the beef market in January 2026 after active purchases at the end of 2025. This happens systematically at the beginning of the year.
Despite the limited supply, global beef prices in January were relatively stable. The situation in the red meat market was also affected by the reorientation of Brazilian exports. After the rapid exhaustion of the US duty-free quota and the introduction of a 26.4% tariff by the Americans, Brazilian suppliers began reorienting beef supplies to other markets, including China. Chinese importers accelerated purchases to manage to conclude contracts before the introduction of the announced protective quota on red meat from Brazil.
According to DCA Market Intelligence, despite the fact that demand for beef in Europe is traditionally weak in January, this year the decrease in buyer activity was more noticeable. Consumers are increasingly choosing cheaper poultry meat due to high retail prices for red meat. The decline in demand for beef continues despite stable prices and even price increases for red meat in Germany. There is a surplus of dairy cattle at slaughterhouses, which are being sold for slaughter amid falling milk prices. It is more difficult for traders to sell existing volumes of meat, as beef remains expensive not because of strong demand, but because of limited supply on the global market, which supports high price levels even in conditions of weak consumption.
According to the Rabobank forecast, from 2026, global beef production may begin to decline, as key producers reduce slaughter volumes. The US and Canada are restoring their beef herds after several years of reduction. Producers in Brazil are holding cows longer to restore the herd. China now produces less meat after a downward correction of the livestock population. The cattle population in the EU is decreasing, and environmental and regulatory restrictions may restrain the increase in red meat production in the short term. Rabobank suggests that beef prices will likely remain high throughout 2026.
In January 2026, Ukraine did not import cattle. Import volumes of chilled beef decreased to 6 tons (-54%), and frozen beef to 81 tons (-18%) compared to the previous month. Compared to January 2025, physical volumes of chilled beef imports increased by 20%, while frozen beef decreased by 23%.
The foreign trade balance in January 2026 was positive and amounted to 7.82 million USD.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
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