Expert Opinion
Oleksandr Nazarko
CEO
Global Agro Finance

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Many farmers keep animals in summer camps, and many do so in winter. Exercise for cows. Fresh air. Reduced care costs? Is it really that…

Gеorgiі Kukhaіleshvili
analyst
Association of Milk Producers

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Will the price of milk increase even more by the end of December? Forecasts of the Analytical Department of AMР

The price situation in the raw milk market does not leave the zone of turbulence.  In time, a new wave of rising prices, which in some places turns into a chase and moves the market up.

This was reported by the Analytical Department of the Association of Milk Producers.

Large solvent companies, in which the economy still allows to raise the price, fighting for a stable supply of raw materials, set new price levels, which are already unprofitable for many processors in the current environment. The period of concluding new protocols is delayed, negotiations are difficult and with minimal flexibility.  As a result, average milk prices rose again by 25-30 kopecks.

Extra grade for 29 kopecks, up to UAH 11.72/kg, higher for 27 kopecks, up to UAH 11.29/kg, the first for 24 kopecks, up to UAH 10.7/kg.  The weighted average price of three grades increased by 27 kopecks to UAH 11.24/kg. Prices for medium and large batches of extra grade milk in the regions fluctuate within the following limits: north and center - 11.5-12.05 UAH/kg, south and east - 11.6-12.05 UAH/kg, west -  11.4-12.05 UAH/kg.  During this period, the range of fluctuations is actually much wider given the already approved prices of individual рroducers.

Average prices are not yet fully established, as for many manufacturers it is still the subject of discussion, so it is possible that at the end of the week they may be higher.

Taking into account the current situation and already known price peaks, the average price for the extra grade by mid-December will be aimed at UAH 12 / kg, and the weighted average of three grades - at UAH 11.50 / kg.

Expectations for rising raw material prices this year were much more modest, given the reduced demand and imports of dairy products, but the factor of milk shortage was much stronger, which was added by another no less significant increase in feed prices, which together do not give  conditions for stabilization.

The preliminary Analytical Report on Milk Prices can be viewed here.