European farmers may face a further reduction in margins even amid a recovery in raw milk prices. Production costs will create additional pressure on raw milk prices.
According to preliminary European Commission data, in September 2026, the average raw milk price in the EU stood at 43.11 euro cents per kg, which is 0.84% more than in August 2026. Relative to the price as of September 2025, milk in the EU depreciated by 19.24%. In September, the price for extra grade milk in Ukraine stood at 33.93 euro cents per kg.
Relative to August 2026, the raw milk price grew in 12 EU member states, namely in Belgium to 44 euro cents per kg (+11.70%), Bulgaria to 42.63 euro cents per kg (+0.90%), Denmark to 45.48 euro cents per kg (+2.41%), Estonia to 39 euro cents per kg (+1.64%), Greece to 55.30 euro cents per kg (+0.13%), Croatia to 47.82 euro cents per kg (+0.55%), Lithuania to 37.95 euro cents per kg (+5.12%), the Netherlands to 44 euro cents per kg (+3.53%), Austria to 47.20 euro cents per kg (+3.96%), Romania to 36.67 euro cents per kg (+0.25%), Slovenia to 39.23 euro cents per kg (+0.95%), and Sweden to 44.96 euro cents per kg (+0.11%).
In September, procurement prices did not change in Germany, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus, or Malta compared to August 2026.
Over the last month, raw milk depreciated in 7 countries, including the Czech Republic to 40 euro cents per kg (-0.10%), France to 44 euro cents per kg (-0.45%), Latvia to 37 euro cents per kg (-0.13%), Hungary to 35 euro cents per kg (-0.42%), Poland to 41 euro cents per kg (-0.05%), Slovakia to 37 euro cents per kg (-1.93%), and Finland to 48 euro cents per kg (-0.04%).
The most expensive raw milk is in Cyprus (65.45 euro cents per kg) and Malta (63.66 euro cents per kg). The lowest prices for milk are received by farmers in Hungary (35.23 euro cents per kg), Slovakia (36.60 euro cents per kg), and Romania (36.67 euro cents per kg).
Relative to September 2025, raw milk prices grew only in Cyprus (+1.55%).
Milk prices decreased in 25 countries, namely in Belgium (-12.25%), Bulgaria (-11.37%), the Czech Republic (-27.35%), Denmark (-17.20%), Germany (-23.80%), Estonia (-22.57%), Ireland (-21.35%), Greece (-1.16%), France (-13.17%), Croatia (-3.43%), Italy (-20.22%), Latvia (-22.08%), Lithuania (-24.27%), Hungary (-30.98%), Malta (-0.73%), the Netherlands (-21.08%), Austria (-18.00%), Poland (-21.73%), Portugal (-9.32%), Romania (-16.30%), Slovenia (-22.27%), Slovakia (-26.45%), Finland (-11.12%), and Sweden (-19.84%) compared to last year's period.
Milk prices in the EU are strengthening against the background of a slowdown in raw milk production volumes amid the consequences of extreme weather conditions, deteriorating feed availability, and shrinking dairy business margins. According to Rabobank's forecast, in the fourth quarter of 2026, raw milk production volumes in the EU may contract by 2% relative to last year's period. A reduction in feed supply could support raw milk procurement prices. Heatwaves and droughts throughout June–August covered milk-producing and exporting countries, degrading pasture conditions and limiting forage crop yields, which negatively affected milk yields and milk component content.
The issue lies not only in feed quality, but also in its availability in Europe and total quantity. According to IFCN estimates, the consequences of weather anomalies will impact the dairy sector in the coming months, as insufficient stocks of quality feed will force farms to adjust rations, increase concentrate use, or adjust herd size, retaining only the most productive cows. The reduction in feed supply and rising costs could restrain the recovery of raw milk production in Europe.
Feed is appreciating faster than raw milk prices are rising, which limits farm profitability. While in the first half of the year margins were pressed by falling raw milk prices amid relatively stable feed costs, the appreciation of the feed base over the next 3–6 months could become one of the main challenges for milk producers. More expensive feed puts pressure on milk production profitability. According to IFCN estimates, feed prices increased by 9.2% over the last month (to 28.3 US dollars per 100 kg). Futures quotes for the European market reach about 35 US dollars per 100 kg of feed. Additional risks for European farmers include rising energy and fertilizer costs.
Lower milk yields and rising milk production costs in Europe create preconditions for increasing deliveries of butter and skimmed milk powder to the European market from Ukraine, where raw milk prices are lower.
Press service of the Association of Milk Producers
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