Expert Opinion
Georghii Kuhiashvili
analyst
Association of Milk Producers

The Global Dairy Market Enters a New Stage of Transformation

The global dairy market enters a new stage of transformation. The EU faces a reduction in profitability and intensifying competition. The US places its bet…

Georghii Kuhiashvili
analyst
Association of Milk Producers

Global Dairy Market: Overproduction, Price Decline, and Recovery Prospects

In 2025, the global dairy market was influenced by factors such as animal diseases, weather, geopolitical and economic changes related to protectionist measures in the…

Demand for Dairy Products Is Slowing Down, and Prices May Rise in Autumn

In Ukraine, demand for dairy products is slowing down due to lower purchasing activity of the population and intensified competition with cheaper European cheeses. At the same time, rising costs for fuel, electricity, logistics, packaging, and raw materials may lead to higher prices for dairy products by the end of summer and in the autumn-winter period.

Pasteurized milk with fat content up to 2.6% in film costs on average 48.76 UAH per kg, which is 43 kopecks (+0.9%) more compared to the previous month and 71 kopecks (+1.5%) more relative to last year's period. The cheapest milk in 900 g film is milk of the "Adalys" brand, which costs 41.99 UAH per kg, and the most expensive is milk of the "Yahotynske" brand – 57.77 UAH per kg.

Pasteurized milk with fat content up to 2.6% in a plastic bottle costs on average 67.00 UAH per kg, which is 69 kopecks (+1%) more compared to the previous month and 3.05 UAH (+5%) more relative to last year's period. The cheapest milk in 870-gram plastic bottles is milk under the "Metro" label, which costs 51.61 UAH per kg, and the most expensive is "Molokiya" milk, which costs 72.93 UAH per kg.

Kefir with 2.5% fat content in film costs on average 59.53 UAH per kg, which is 78 kopecks (+1.3%) more than a month ago and 4.99 UAH (+9%) more expensive than last year. The cheapest in 900-gram packaging is kefir of the "Auchan" brand, which costs 49.89 UAH per kg. The highest price was recorded for "Yahotynske" kefir in 900-gram film (63.83 UAH per kg).

Kefir with 2.5% fat content in a plastic bottle costs on average 79.19 UAH per kg, which is 24 kopecks (-0.3%) less than a month ago, but 4.22 UAH (+6%) more than last year. The cheapest "Prostonashe" kefir in 870-gram bottles costs 76.75 UAH per kg, and the most expensive product in similar container of the "Molokiya" brand costs 78.15 UAH per kg.

Sour cream with 15% fat content in cups costs on average 194.31 UAH per kg, which is 1.56 UAH (+0.8%) more compared to the previous month and 2.48 UAH per kg (+1%) more relative to last year's period. The cheapest sour cream in 300-gram cups is of the Novus label, which costs 148.30 UAH per kg, and the most expensive is sour cream produced by Organic Milk – 230.99 UAH per kg.

Sour cream with 15% fat content in film costs on average 157.17 UAH per kg, which is 1.60 UAH (+1.03%) more relative to the previous month and 11.92 UAH (+8%) more relative to last year's period. The cheapest sour cream in 350-gram packaging is "Kagma" (128.86 UAH per kg), and the most expensive is sour cream of the "Prostonashe" brand (182.70 UAH per kg).

The average price for drinking yogurt with fat content from 1.6% to 2.8% in plastic bottles stood at 125.98 UAH per kg, which is 2.43 UAH (+1.96%) more relative to the previous month and 11.38 UAH (+10%) more relative to last year's period. The cheapest yogurt in 290-300-gram plastic bottles is "Halychyna" (128.68 UAH per kg), and the most expensive is "Dolce" yogurt (137.55 UAH per kg).

Spoonable yogurt with fat content from 1.6% to 2.8% in cups costs on average 176.78 UAH per kg, which is 1.32 UAH (-0.7%) less relative to the previous month, but 16.10 UAH (+10%) more relative to last year's period. In 280-gram cups, the cheapest is "Na Zdorovya. Bolharskyi" yogurt (130.88 UAH per kg), and the most expensive is "Ferma. Po-turetsky" yogurt (175.71 UAH per kg).

Cottage cheese with 9% fat content costs on average 295.09 UAH per kg, which is 7.68 UAH (-2.5%) less relative to the previous month and 13.26 UAH (+5%) more relative to last year's period. In 350-gram packaging, the cheapest cottage cheese is of the "Auchan" label (236.86 UAH per kg), and the most expensive is cottage cheese of the "Ferma" brand (311.43 UAH per kg).

Domestic butter with fat content from 72.5% to 73% costs on average 592.09 UAH per kg, which is 7.77 UAH (-1.3%) less relative to the previous month, but 19.88 UAH (+3%) more expensive than last year. Among Ukrainian brands in 180-gram packaging, the cheapest was "Auchan" butter – 477.22 UAH per kg. The highest price tag in this packaging is on "Ferma" butter – 763.89 UAH per kg.

"Lustdorf" butter with 72.5% fat content in 180-gram packaging costs 698.07 UAH per kg, which is 64.22 UAH (+10.1%) more relative to last month and 47.40 UAH (+7%) more relative to last year's period. Imported butter costs on average 1170.00 UAH per kg, which is 98% more expensive than Ukrainian-produced products.

Ukrainskyi cheese with 50% fat content costs on average 607.26 UAH per kg. Compared to the previous month, the commodity depreciated by 25.47 UAH (-4%). Cheese grew in price by 33.35 UAH (+6%) relative to last year's period. In a one-kilogram container, the cheapest Ukrainskyi cheese is of the "Auchan" label – 379.00 UAH per kg, and the most expensive is cheese of the "Zvenyhora" brand – 636.18 UAH per kg.

Hollandskyi cheese with 45% fat content costs on average 627.28 UAH per kg. Compared to the previous month, the commodity appreciated by 2.81 UAH (+0.4%). Relative to last year, cheese appreciated by 48.03 UAH (+8%). In a one-kilogram container, the lowest price for Hollandskyi cheese is of the "Kremenetski Molochni Vyroby" brand – 422.90 UAH per kg, and the highest for cheese of the "Komo" brand ("Staryi Hollandets") – 745.80 UAH per kg.

The average price for Maasdam cheese with 45% fat content of domestic production stood at 781.21 UAH per kg, which is 27.37 UAH (+3.6%) more than a month ago. Cheese costs 59.53 UAH (+8%) more expensive than last year. Among domestic products, the cheapest in a one-kilogram container is weighed Maasdam cheese – 499.00 UAH per kg, and the most expensive sold is Maasdam of the "Novhorod-Siverskyi" brand – 629.00 UAH per kg. Imported Maasdam of the Kroon brand in a one-kilogram container costs on average 529.00 UAH per kg, which is 32% cheaper than domestic products.

Gouda cheese with 45% fat content from Ukrainian companies costs on average 591.66 UAH per kg, which is 23.37 UAH (-4%) less relative to the previous month and 26.26 UAH (-4%) cheaper than last year. Among domestic products, the cheapest in a one-kilogram container is Gouda cheese of the "Radymo" brand – 475.70 UAH per kg, and the most expensive price tag is on Gouda of the Villa Milk brand – 699.00 UAH per kg.

Mozzarella with 45% fat content of Ukrainian production costs on average 574.24 UAH per kg. The price for cheese almost did not change compared to the previous month. Over the last year, Mozzarella depreciated by 28.50 UAH (-5%). The cheapest in a one-kilogram container is Mozzarella of the "Zelena Ferma" brand – 349.00 UAH per kg, and the most expensive is Mozzarella of the "Yahotynske" brand, which costs 733.32 UAH per kg. Imported Mozzarella of the ARO brand costs 669.00 UAH per kg, which is 17% more expensive than products from Ukrainian producers.

Food sales in Ukrainian retail networks slowed down. In Ukraine, factors that stimulated consumer purchasing activity have run out, including high inflation expectations, wage increases, and budget payments using international financial support. As a result of forced emigration and mobilization, a labor shortage appeared, which 69% of Ukrainian companies faced. The reduction in the number of consumers among working-age citizens affected the slowdown of demand for dairy products inside the country.

A significant increase in cheese deliveries to Ukraine from Europe against the background of a seasonal decline in consumption intensified competition in the domestic market. Domestic cheesemakers are forced to cut product production volumes. European cheeses remain cheaper than Ukrainian counterparts. Promotional offers contribute to the revival of buyer activity, but they often negate the profitability of domestic cheese sales. Without expanding export opportunities and increasing competitiveness, it is harder for Ukrainian producers to compete with cheaper European products both in the domestic and foreign markets.

Likely, butter prices will remain without significant changes, as commodity supply exceeds demand, and opportunities for disposing of surpluses remain limited. Butter export to EU member states remains economically unprofitable for most Ukrainian producers. Butter prices in the domestic market do not fully cover the costs of its production. The packaged butter segment may remain profitable if sales are organized efficiently.

However, the dairy industry operates under conditions of rising production costs, which creates preconditions for reviewing prices for dairy products. In Ukraine, a 5-10% price increase for dairy products is likely by the end of summer and in autumn-winter. Retail prices are affected by the rising cost of diesel fuel, which represents a significant share of costs for sowing, harvesting, tillage, and product transportation. Price increases are affected by growing costs for electricity, packaging materials, logistics, and exchange rate fluctuations. The cost of packaging depends on the euro or dollar exchange rate, which also affects the final price of dairy products.

Press service of the Association of Milk Producers


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