Beef exports from Ukraine declined due to logistics problems and rising costs, while the strengthening of domestic production in China, trade restrictions, and the redirection of export flows from Brazil and Australia intensify competition in the global red meat market, and the cattle shortage in the US supports high prices.
According to preliminary data from the State Customs Service, in July 2026 Ukraine exported about 1.3 thousand tons of live cattle, which is 14% less relative to June 2026 and 34% less relative to July 2025. Monetary revenue for exported animals stood at 4.06 million USD, which is 10% more relative to June 2026, but 3% less relative to July 2025. In January–July 2026, Ukraine exported 12.15 thousand tons (+3.7%) of live cattle for the amount of 28.69 million USD (+12%).
In July 2026, Ukrainian exporters delivered 343 tons of fresh or chilled beef to foreign markets, which is 23% less relative to June and 880% more relative to July 2025. Export revenue for the delivered commodity stood at 2.74 million USD, which is 25% less relative to June, but 15 times more relative to July 2025. In January–July 2026, Ukraine exported 2.56 thousand tons of fresh beef for the amount of 20.41 million USD. Ukraine increased physical export volumes of fresh beef almost 25 times, and monetary revenue almost 33 times compared to last year's period.
Physical export volumes of frozen beef from Ukraine in July 2026 stood at 1.69 thousand tons, which is 1% less relative to June 2026 and only 0.4% more relative to July 2025. Monetary revenue for the delivered commodity stood at almost 7.61 million USD, which is 2% less relative to June 2026, but 1% more relative to July 2025. In January–July 2026, Ukraine exported 10.93 thousand tons (-3%) of frozen beef for the amount of 49.4 million USD (+9%).
Likely, the reduction in exports of live cattle and frozen beef from Ukraine in July was influenced by the suspension of shipments of livestock products from Black Sea ports as a result of Russian strikes and growing transportation costs due to rising oil and fuel prices. Competition in the global beef market intensified as a result of reduced import demand in China. In China, a decision was made to introduce quotas on beef from exporting regions, including Australia and Brazil, to protect the national cattle breeding industry. Considerably more locally produced beef appeared in China's supermarkets. Increased precipitation led to the appearance of pastures and corn fields in arid or desert areas of China. In particular, in the Chinese region of Inner Mongolia, a large arid area turned into corn fields, pastures, and forests over recent decades.
The world's largest beef importer, China, is becoming more self-sufficient by expanding its own cattle herd. Since 2018, the cattle herd in China grew by a third, to almost 90 million head. According to Murray Davis, regional manager of Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), beef prices in China grew only slightly, as the country has large stocks of beef. About 500 thousand tons of Brazilian beef are already located in warehouses in China, and Australia has already sold 200 thousand tons of beef to China this year, and these volumes physically cannot be consumed quickly.
Therefore, Brazil reduces beef production volumes to mitigate the consequences of a more complicated export situation against the background of trade restrictions and the prospect of losing access to key markets. According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil, cattle slaughter volumes in Brazil in the first half of 2026 stood at 14.4 million head, which is 1.3% less relative to last year's period. Market participants expect that slaughter volumes will continue to decline during the third quarter. Also, a reason for concern among Brazilian red meat exporters is the decision of the European Union to close its market to Brazilian animal products due to sanitary requirements related to the use of antimicrobial drugs in livestock farming. Certain Brazilian companies consider the option of increasing beef deliveries to alternative markets such as the Philippines, a number of Middle Eastern countries, Chile, and even the US at lower prices than those that were on the Chinese market.
In Australia over recent weeks, prices for red meat for minced meat preparation were declining against the background of tariff restrictions in China and South Korea. According to traders, tariff and quota measures of China and South Korea only increased pressure on the market, as from now on a larger amount of products is redirected to the US and other markets. Suppliers of Australian beef feel competition in the markets of Southeast Asian countries from suppliers from Brazil, who, having faced quota restrictions in China, redirect their products to these markets.
Competition in the global beef market is also intensifying because Argentina, under the presidency of Javier Milei, stimulates Argentine cattle breeders to raise heavier livestock for export thanks to high global red meat prices and new trade agreements. Over the next four years, beef exports from Argentina are expected to grow by up to 50%. The country moves away from the traditional red meat trading model, which was largely oriented toward the domestic market. Argentine cattle breeders react to the strengthening of beef demand in the US, Israel, Europe, and China, and also take advantage of new trade agreements with the US and the EU, which provide for increased import quotas at reduced tariffs. Rising live bullock prices also stimulate cattle breeders to fatten livestock to a higher weight than before.
Global beef prices remain high due to the cattle herd reduction in the US. Ilaria Dal Barco, a doctoral student in agricultural economics at the University of California, Berkeley, assumes that the limited number of cattle in the US, increased costs of keeping animals due to drought, and slow herd reproduction will continue to hold back supply.
Likely, high beef prices in the US will persist, as herd recovery will require years, even if farmers start leaving more females for herd reproduction right now. Beef production recovers much slower than poultry or pork production. Farmers have to leave heifers for reproduction, inseminate them, raise calves, and then wait until these animals reach commercial weight before an additional amount of beef reaches consumers.
The recent drought increased American farmers' costs for feed, water, and affected the deterioration of pasture conditions, which contributes to the cattle herd reduction. Against the background of a sharp reduction in cow slaughter and steady consumer demand, ground beef prices in the US rose by more than 60% since 2022, outpacing price growth even for steak cuts. When inflation raises prices for expensive steaks, consumers switch to ground beef to save money. However, there has become significantly less meat for ground beef production.
In July 2026, Ukraine did not import live cattle. Import volumes of chilled beef stood at 15 tons, which is 15% more relative to June and 50% more relative to July 2025. Imports of frozen beef increased to 124 tons (+8%) relative to the previous month. Relative to July 2025, physical import volumes of chilled beef increased by 50%, and frozen beef – by 1%.
The foreign trade balance in July 2026 was positive and stood at 12.97 million USD.
Press service of the Association of Milk Producers
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