Expert Opinion
Volodymyr Andriets
analyst Association of Milk Producers
Association of Milk Producers

The World Milk Crisis 2020 - what are the scenarios for future events?

The World Milk Crisis 2020 - what are the scenarios for future events? Volodymyr Andriets analyst Association of Milk Producers During the global quarantine analytical…

Foreign trade in dairy products in the negative zone

In the first half of the year, Ukraine exported dairy products by 116.2 million dollars, which is 25% less than last year, while total imports increased by 160% to 140.5 million dollars, and the negative trade balance is already exceeded 24 million dollars.

The largest share of losses is provided by the fall in key export items - milk and condensed cream - minus 36%, to 29.8 million dollars.  and butter - minus 43%, to 26.5 million dollars, compared to the previous year.  Actual losses from the fall in total exports for the first half of the year amounted to 38.9 million dollars, of which losses from the reduction of exports of butter and milk powder together - 36.7 million dollars.

Export trade in other dairy products, including non-condensed milk and cream, decreased significantly by 22.8% (to USD 6.8 million), and lactic acid products by 22.3% (to USD 3.9 million).  and cheeses - by 17.1% (up to $ 9.8 million).

The growth of imports of other dairy products is also alarming, in particular the group of condensed milk and cream - + 399%, up to $ 5.5 million, casein + 375%, up to $ 0.6 million, condensed milk and cream  +187  %, up to 5.6 million dollars, ice cream + 115%, up to 2.9 million dollars, sour milk products  + 42%, up to 6 million dollars, whey  + 28%, up to 2.6  million dollars.

The main counterparties in the total turnover of foreign trade in dairy products are Poland ($ 66.4 million), Germany ($ 20.8 million), the Netherlands ($ 11.9 million) and France ($ 10.1 million).

A significant decline in dairy exports began last year, which was due to a shortage of milk, as well as falling world prices, including butter.  This year, in fact, the same problems were compounded by falling global demand due to global constraints.  Simultaneously with the fall in exports, there was a rapid increase in imports from European countries. Therefore, the issue of conducting investigations and implementing measures to protect domestic producers from growing imports is already acute.

AMР Analytical Department