Raw milk prices are rising due to intensified export demand and higher prices for exchange-traded commodities. However, cheese imports and security risks may create obstacles to further growth.
As of September 9, the average procurement price for extra grade milk stood at UAH 15.30/kg excl. VAT, which is UAH 0.70 higher compared to the previous month. The price range for this grade on farms varies from UAH 14.50 to UAH 15.80/kg excl. VAT. The lower price range increased by UAH 0.60, and the upper range by UAH 0.80 relative to the first half of last month.
Higher grade on average costs UAH 15.00/kg excl. VAT, which is UAH 0.80 higher relative to the previous month. Higher grade milk prices range from UAH 14.50 to UAH 15.40/kg excl. VAT. Compared to the first half of last month, the lower price range increased by UAH 1.10, and the upper price range increased by UAH 0.90.
The average price for first grade milk stood at UAH 14.50/kg excl. VAT, which is UAH 1.00 higher relative to the previous month. The minimum price on farms stood at UAH 13.60/kg. The maximum price stood at UAH 14.80/kg. The lower price range increased by UAH 0.60, and the upper range by UAH 1.20.
Accordingly, the weighted average price of the three grades stood at UAH 15.10/kg excl. VAT, which is UAH 0.75 higher relative to the previous month. Relative to September 2025, milk is UAH 1.52 cheaper.
Raw milk prices rose at the beginning of September despite the deterioration of the security situation and weak domestic market demand for dairy products. Raw milk prices are affected by sustained demand for exchange-traded commodities in export markets and rising prices for them, particularly for skimmed milk powder. There are currently no significant stocks of butter and milk powder in warehouses. Active price promotions on packaged butter in the first half of the year contributed to a noticeable increase in its consumption in Ukraine, so significant stocks were not formed in warehouses.
It is likely that by the end of September, the price for large batches of extra grade milk may rise to UAH 15.50–16.00/kg, and by the end of the year to UAH 17.00–17.50/kg depending on the security situation, demand, prices for finished dairy products, export and import volumes of dairy products, and the exchange rate.
The supply of raw milk is shrinking in the global market, particularly in Europe. According to Rabobank's forecast, in the fourth quarter, milk production in the EU may decrease by 1.6% compared to the same period last year, which should contribute to the stabilization and strengthening of raw milk prices. According to IFCN data, in August 2026, the combined global raw milk price indicator stood at 46.8 USD/100 kg, and in the future, it may rise to 47.5 USD/100 kg. Average level across major markets: New Zealand — 52 USD/100 kg; EU — 49 USD/100 kg; USA — 45 USD/100 kg. Over the month, prices rose by 4.6%, 1.7%, and 3.9%, respectively.
For comparison, at the end of August, the price of raw milk in Ukraine stood at about 38 USD/100 kg in terms of milk with 4% fat and 3.3% protein, and as of the beginning of September at 39 USD/100 kg, which is 5.0% more than as of the beginning of August 2026.
It is precisely the situation on the global market that creates the preconditions for further growth in procurement prices in Ukraine. However, they will be affected by the balance of milk supply and demand from processors, export and import volumes of finished products, the exchange rate, and the competitiveness of Ukrainian dairy products. Reaching a Ukrainian procurement price level of around 45 USD/100 kg is possible only under conditions of competitive processing. The modernization of milk processing enterprises, the production of value-added products, efficient logistics, and export development are directly linked to the possibility of raising the procurement price of raw milk in Ukraine.
To maintain access to the European market, it is fundamentally important that Ukraine fulfill EU animal welfare requirements by January 1, 2028. These requirements are set out in Order No. 224, adopted and registered at the Ministry of Justice back in 2021, which came into effect on January 1, 2026. However, not all farms have fully met the requirements provided by it. If violations are detected during inspections, Ukraine risks receiving restrictions on dairy exports to the EU. This could have a double negative effect, as part of the Ukrainian dairy products that enter the EU are subsequently directed to third countries. Therefore, restricting access to the European market could also complicate the re-export of Ukrainian products. Moldova also requires compliance with European approaches and allows supplies of only dairy products made from extra grade milk produced on farms that meet animal welfare requirements.
Several factors could restrain further increases in raw milk prices in Ukraine. The new system of direct delivery of products to specific stores increases the logistical distance and raises the final cost of products, which could restrain demand for dairy products in the domestic market. If the production of fresh dairy products declines, more milk will have to be directed toward the production of milk powder, butter, and other exchange-traded products. An increase in stocks of exchange-traded commodities in warehouses could restrain further price increases. Rising dairy imports, particularly of cheeses from Poland, create additional competition for Ukrainian companies and restrain demand for domestic products among consumers.
Press service of the Association of Milk Producers
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