The growth of the price index following the results of the trading event was held back by a decline in milk fat prices.
On Tuesday, August 4, the 409th GDT trading event took place, following the results of which the price index stood at 1140, which is 1 point (+0.1%) more relative to the previous trading event. The average price for dairy products stood at 3778 USD per ton, which is 37 USD less relative to the results of the previous auction. During the trading event, 40504 tons of exchange-traded commodities were sold, which is 13615 tons more relative to the results of the last auction. The minimum offer was recorded at the level of 37045 tons, and the maximum – at the level of 44702 tons. 170 dairy market operators participated in the trading event, which is 3 companies more relative to July 21.
According to the results of the trading event, the price for anhydrous milk fat stood at 6367 USD per ton, which is 0.8% less relative to the previous trading event. According to USDA data, in Europe milk fat prices strengthened against the background of strengthening interest from buyers and a reduction of fat in milk after a heatwave, but in the US there is a sufficient supply of raw milk during the period of maintenance and suspension of operations at certain milk processing enterprises. According to the GDT forecast, in September the price for anhydrous milk fat grew by 0.6%, and in October it may decrease by 0.5%.
The price for butter at this trading event stood at 5225 USD per ton, which is 2.3% less relative to the previous trading event. As DG AGRI reports, at the end of July butter prices rose in the EU to 4434 USD per ton (+1.5%), while they decreased in Oceania to 5563 USD per ton (-4.7%) and in the US to 3546 USD per ton (-4.2%) relative to the beginning of July. As CME Group reports, butter prices in the US fell to the lowest levels since mid-January. On the American market, there is a sufficient supply of raw milk during the period of maintenance and suspension of operations at certain milk processing enterprises. American companies are accumulating warehouse stocks of butter and preparing for the autumn-winter sales season. According to USDA data, demand for butter is stable in the US in retail networks and from food industry enterprises. Butter consumption in the US in 2024 exceeded all previous records and reached an all-time high — about 3.1 kg per person. Since 2000, average annual per capita butter consumption in the US grew by more than 51%. According to Canadian Dairy Commission data, in May 2026 warehouse stocks of butter in the country increased by 405 tons.
In June, Oceania increased butter supplies to North America, China, and Southeast Asian countries. In Europe, butter prices strengthened due to the revitalization of interest from buyers and a reduction in raw milk intakes for processing against the background of heat and deterioration of cow productivity over previous weeks. The Dutch cooperative FrieslandCampina increased butter production capacities at its plant in the city of Lochem (Netherlands) to satisfy growing demand both from enterprises and in retail networks. Demand for butter revitalized in export markets, including in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Mintel GNPD data, in June 2025 – May 2026, the number of new bakery products using butter in the Asia-Pacific region increased by 24% compared to the same period last year. However, butter prices are pressed by warehouse stocks of the commodity that accumulated in previous months. Auction organizers expect that in September the price for butter may decrease by 3.1%, and in October it may decrease by 2.3%.
The price for whole milk powder stood at 3483 USD per ton and increased by 0.2% compared to the results of the previous trading event. According to DG AGRI data, at the end of July prices for whole milk powder rose in the EU to 3718 USD per ton (+1.7%), but decreased in Oceania to 3475 USD per ton (-4.5%) and in the US to 4696 USD per ton (-1.4%) relative to the beginning of July. As USDA reports, in the US whole milk powder depreciated against the background of weakening quotations for butter and skimmed milk powder and now costs cheaper than last year. In Europe, whole milk powder prices, on the contrary, strengthened against the background of reduced supply of raw milk during the heat and the revitalization of interest from buyers. Demand for the commodity is gradually recovering thanks to lower prices. In particular, in June Oceania increased whole milk powder export volumes to countries of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Demand for the commodity is pushed by risks of reduced milk production due to the heat and the consequences of the El Niño natural phenomenon for raw milk production in the Southern Hemisphere.
At the same time, prices are pressed by unrealized stocks of skimmed milk powder that accumulated in South American countries, as access to the Algerian market remains closed to local processors due to the unresolved issue with the renewal of export permits. According to EADairy data, long-term stabilization of the global dairy market will significantly depend on the recovery of import demand for milk powder from China. Since China is the world's largest importer of whole milk powder and at the same time the only large dairy country where domestic milk production is reducing, it is the revitalization of Chinese purchases that can become the main factor for further strengthening of global dairy prices. Auction organizers forecast an increase in the price for the commodity by 2.1% in September, but a decrease by 0.1% in October.
The price for skimmed milk powder stood at 3483 USD, which is 0.2% more relative to the results of the previous trading event. According to DG AGRI data, at the end of July prices for skimmed milk powder rose in the EU to 3085 USD per ton (+1.0%), while they decreased in Oceania to 3250 USD per ton (-11.3%) and in the US to 3317 USD per ton (-5.5%) relative to the beginning of the month. According to USDA data, prices for the commodity in the US are pressed by moderate demand in the domestic market and weak demand in export markets, with the exception of Mexico. However, skimmed milk powder appreciated in the EU against the background of the revitalization of interest from buyers. European skimmed milk powder prices are more competitive than for the commodity from the US and Oceania, which attracts buyers. Brazil increased imports of skimmed milk powder against the background of a reduction in raw milk supply in the domestic market. According to the GDT forecast, in September skimmed milk powder may appreciate by 2.1%, and in October depreciate by 0.1%.
Cheddar cheese appreciated to 3723 USD per ton (+3.8%), and Mozzarella cheese appreciated to 3992 USD per ton (+1%). According to DG AGRI data, at the end of July the price for Cheddar cheese rose in the EU to 3788 USD per ton (+7.4%) and in the US to 3540 USD per ton (+12.4%), while it decreased in Oceania to 4100 USD per ton (-8.6%) relative to the beginning of July. According to CME Group data, Cheddar cheese production in the US was held back by a reduction in milk intakes for processing in the Midwest. According to USDA data, the cheese market in the US is balanced, and the current level of commodity production covers existing demand. Demand for cheeses, in particular Mozzarella cheese, is active in the domestic market, and sales are better than last year. Demand for American cheeses is active in Mexico.
Demand for cheese is active in tourist countries of Southern Europe from catering establishments. The supply of Mozzarella cheese is low on the spot market of Europe and is limited. Heatwaves in France, Germany, Great Britain, and Italy led to a reduction in raw milk intakes for processing and led to an increase in prices for certain types of cheeses. Mozzarella cheese in the EU appreciated to 3448 EUR per ton and for the first time in several years exceeded the price for Cheddar cheese, which is traditionally more expensive. Demand for Mozzarella cheese traditionally grows in summer. Auction organizers expect that Cheddar cheese may appreciate by 5.2%, and Mozzarella cheese – by 1.6% in October.
Lactose appreciated to 1780 USD per ton (+4.1%). According to USDA data, demand for lactose is active, and stocks of the commodity on the spot market are limited. According to the GDT forecast, lactose may appreciate by 4.1% in October.
Buttermilk powder appreciated to 3966 USD per ton (-2.8%). According to USDA data, demand for buttermilk powder is moderate in export markets, but its stocks are limited, as processors prefer the production of skimmed milk powder. Auction organizers expect that buttermilk powder may appreciate by 4.4% in September, but depreciate by 3.5% in October.
The next GDT trading event will take place on August 18.
Press service of the Association of Milk Producers
Follow us on LinkedIn
Related News